Table of Contents
Computer Industry Laws, Heuristics and Class Formation:
Why computers are like they are.
Outline
Hardware, Software, & Cyberization forces
Mooreís First Law
Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!
Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information
Computer formation and industry structure laws
Bellís Evolution Of
Computer Classes
Platform, Interface, & Network Computer Evolution Enablers
Future Computer Generations
Price, performance, and class of various goods & services
Bellís Seven Price Tiers
Computer Classes
Computer formation and industry structure laws
Groveís Law of Dis-integration
A Horizontal Computer Industry
Economics...
Platform Economics
Metcalfís Law
Network Utility = Users2
Virtuous Economic Cycle
Software Economics
Software Economics: Billís Law
Value of software per $ of product price vs volume/yr
Economics of an Operating System
Hardware technology: processing, memory, and networking enable the new structures
1. We get more
2. New overtakes old
3. Things get cheaper
4. Newer & cheaper wins?
Internetters growth
Internetters growth
1. We get more
Some changes by 2001
Extrapolation from 1950s:
20-30% growth per year
National Semiconductor Technology Roadmap (size)
National Storage Technology Roadmap (size, density, speed)
Communication rate(t) in log10(Kbps)
Microprocessor performance
Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year
New overtakes old
Processor performance
Things get cheaper
Exponential change of 10X per decade causes real turmoil!
VAX Planning Model 1975:
I didnít believe it
Newer & cheaper wins?
"The mainframe is dead!
Ö and for sure this time!"
Predictable computers
2001 and the web will be about as it is todayÖNOT
Larry Ellison: NCs will outsell PCs 9:1 by 2000.
A New Computer Class will form to access the net & communicate
SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms
SNAP Systems circa ‚ 2000
Scalability for scientific and technical computing
In Dec. 1995 computers with 1,000 processors will do most of the scientific processing.
Bell Prize winners 1987-1997
But what has really happened
Petaflops by 2010
PPT Slide
Parallel processing is a constant distance away.
Vannevar Bush c1945
Read, heard, and seen information: How many bits and what data-rate?
Steve Mann
in
Cyberspace
CMU wearable computers
Medtronics
Implanted
Cardioplastic
PPT Slide |